I will never forget the sight of my mother bleeding before my eyes, and my feeling of helplessness to save her life. …The streets of Gaza came alive as people poured out to celebrate this long-awaited moment. Children’s laughter and joyful chants of “ceasefire, ceasefire” echoed through the air, their voices breaking through the silence of sorrow. We know it is temporary. There was a quiet understanding that this ceasefire, though temporary, had given us something priceless — a moment to reconnect with what had been lost. we allowed ourselves to remember how to hope again, Shahad Ali, in Truthout.
artwork by sg.crowell
If everybody always lies to you, the consequence is not that you believe the lies, but rather that nobody believes anything any longer. … And a people that no longer can believe anything cannot make up its mind. It is deprived not only of its capacity to act but also of its capacity to think and to judge. And with such a people you can then do what you please, Hannah Arendt.
It was announced from Qatar that a ceasefire was expected to begin on Sunday, January 19, 2025. The people of Gaza celebrated. Children laughed in the streets. Adults cried with joy. People were so tired of loved ones dying and being moved and displaced over and over again.
An agreement had been reached between Hamas and Israel. According to Palestinian journalist, Muhammad Shehada, who carefully compared versions of proposed agreements several times, there was no change. the most recent document was "word for word" the same proposal that had been on the table on May 27, 2024 and it was almost exactly the same as previous proposals before that. This time it appeared to take hold - at least for 42 days.
There would be 42 days of peace. On hearing the good news Palestinians hugged each other even as Israel continued its nonstop bombing following the cease-fire announcement and the deaths continued.
The proposal had been originally drafted by the US Administration under President Joe Biden. The hopeful closing of the deal was credited to the incoming president, Mr. Trump. There were of course many other factors at play; not the least including some changes in Netanyahu’s coalition, which included far right members.
The agreement would be implemented in three phases: each one lasting about six weeks. The first phase involved an exchange of prisoners; This includes 33 Israeli hostages and possibly between 990 to 1650 imprisoned Palestinians. By the end of the first phase, all Israeli women, children and older people were to be freed.
In that phase, Israeli soldiers would leave populated areas and move to designated areas along the boundaries of Gaza. It is unclear as to where the IDF would go.
More aid would enter Gaza with the opening of the Rafah border. However, as reported in DW, the "Philadelphi corridor, which is necessary for bringing in humanitarian aid, would apparently only be opened during the second phase of the agreement. People displaced from the north would be able to return home. Many would find desolation.
Planning for Gaza's existence when the war ended would begin reportedly around 12 days into phase one; providing a foundation for phase two planning. There was no serious indication of what would happen after phase one and a lot could go wrong. For instance, this could include excuses such as glitches in prisoner exchanges as an excuse to back out.
Phase three would see the beginning of reconstruction of Gaza. That is an enormous task. The figure of 2 to 5 years to clear rubble and start construction. In reality, restoration of Gaza would take decades. The Gulf Emirates is a critical resource toward reconstruction efforts. However it wants to see a two-state solution before providing support.
There has been a lot of speculation and expert opinions about what would actually happen during this ceasefire period.
It was clearly documented that Hamas accepted the framework. However, Netanyahu followed the familiar pattern of finding ways to balk and blame Hamas for any stalled progress. This increased uncertainty.
For those speaking in the media who were familiar with the Mideast, there was a heartfelt relief that at least the people of Gaza would have at least some break from the oppression and the pain of loss that they lived with every day. Yet, there was trepidation.
There were too many unanswered questions...
In Qatar, experts lingered in the corridors while powerful interests negotiated behind closed doors. Deals were being made. Motives and longer-term agendas were at work, perhaps unseen and yet palatability present in history. Outside the room there were questions.
Who is overseeing implementation of a deal that consisted of three phases? From CNN US - In a response to a question from CNN's Becky Anderson, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said the US, Egypt, and Qatar; had put a mechanism in place to ensure neither side breaks the cease-fire."...it will be placed in Cairo and the follow up actually will be a joint team from the three countries that will monitor the implementation of the agreement...Everything has been agreed-upon and will be in place, hopefully, on the day of execution.”
That sounded good except, as has been repeated by Mideast experts looking at the agreement, the devil is in the details.
The guarantors were Qatar, the United States, and Egypt. What did guarantor mean? What about enforcement? Either side could stop the process at any moment. What were the means of implementation?
Three phases? There were no signs of a committed plan beyond saying that phase one would be a foundation for negotiations in phase two. Was there a serious commitment given Netanyahu’s pattern of breaking promises? There was nothing to stop Netanyahu from restarting the war once he had all the hostages in hand at the end of phase one.
There was no vision or written agreement on matters such as governance now or in the future. There would of course be provocations here and there. At any time, some small armed group in Gaza or the West Bank could cause a disturbance and give Israel an excuse to back out.
What is and will be the role of the United States. It is most likely the arms shipments will continue. That is not in any agreement benefiting the Palestinian people.
What if the fate of an entire country rested on, not the rule of law, but on profit seeking motives that had little to do with Hamas.
The international community, despite whatever programs and bandaid support over the years, has allowed genocide. It has allowed nations, most notably the US, to sell the necessary weapons to conduct that genocide. International laws have been violated by Israel with no consequences. It has been complicit in its silence in Israel's apartheid, even when it became an end-game of genocide that was less for self-defense or revenge, and more for self-interested political reasons and development ambitions.
It has been said that President Joe Biden, who called himself a Zionist, was driven by a viral idealism. He was bound by a colonization perspective fostered by powerful zionist interests in the United States. To uphold this ideal, he continually lied to the American people regarding who was responsible for the genocide against the Palestinian people; claiming Hamas to be the villain. He spent billions of dollars of taxpayer money feeding this lie.
Mr. Trump, on the other hand, is far from an idealist. He is a self-interested businessman.
This is the business deal Mr. Trump could offer Netanyahu and his coalition:
His assurance that he is against Hamas and pro-Israel. A pro Israeli media reported that Trump made several promises to the Israeli government, including that he would support Israel retroactively if it violated the agreement. He didn’t stop there. According to Israel’s Ynet news outlet [translated], Trump also reportedly agreed to remove Israeli settlers and far right extremists from the US sanctions list.
How far removed is Mr.Trump's ambitions from 2018 when Middle East analyst Bill Law wrote a piece titled "Trump's Palestine deal is a real estate transaction?
On his site, Truth Social, Mr Trump wrote: "With this deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, ( a real estate investor he selected as a special envoy to the Middle East ) will continue to work closely with Israel and our [A]llies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven." Was he staging the future of the West Bank?
In the Financial Times, (January 16, 2025) " It is not known whether Witkoff delivered any precise threats from Trump or made promises to Israel in the event of a deal — both trademarks of Trump diplomacy, which is unpredictable and transactional by equal measure."
In Forward, Jay Michaelson wrote, in reference to the actual role Mr. Trump played in a confluence of events, " ... there is one way in which Trump deserves credit for this long awaited cease-fire deal. In the next year we are likely to see Israel seek to annex parts or even all of the West Bank, and it is equally likely that Mr. Trump, whose reelection was largely bankrolled by right wing activist philanthropist Miriam Adelson, will be supportive [of continuing settlement].
It is an easy call for Netanyahu: the promise of greater Israel is well worth the price of a Gaza deal.”
In an after-war scenario of "peace" will settlers sit on the porch on the West Bank and look at the sunset while dispossessed families and children and diverse people disappear without notice?
When they return home in Gaza can Palestinians survive the cycles of grief over the loss of homes and family?
Who will help them with a reported 41,950,000 metric tons of debris and what will they find underneath the rubble and in their hearts?
Once a deal is made will Palestinians and their right to sovereignty be forgotten?
In Consortium News, Chris Hedges writes, " A colonized and oppressed people tends, given the chance, to mirror the atrocities perpetrated on them by their oppressor."
As it happened, the continuing Holocaust/antisemitic trope, which buries the true tragedy and origins of antisemitism, licensed a right to practice genocide. This mirror is right before our eyes.
In terms of the art of the deal, the West Bank is already effectively being annexed.
One Israeli activist said this about diligence, "We must... pay attention to every minuscule step that forms part of the full picture of the annexation and the overhaul – every West Bank farm that gets "legalized," every road that gets paved and every judge who gets appointed."
Is there hope for a two-state solution that offers Paletinians soverignty and self determination in these negotiations? There are signs that the process itself is not taken seriously enough by Israel perhaps because in terms of enforcement it has not been held accountable by the international community.
It might be that the only hope for Palestinians, for Israel, and for the rest of us is if people around the globe not let Palestine disappear by staying engaged. We can't afford any politicized manipulations that encourage short attention spans. The voices of the Palestinian people rising from the rubble have been loud and clear.